The National Retail Federation reports that retailers continue to front-load imports into U.S. ports due to tariff uncertainties and potential fees on Chinese-built ships by the Trump administration. While volumes are expected to stay high through spring, the NRF's Global Port Tracker has reduced its second-quarter import forecast compared to last month.
The trade group notes significant import levels in early 2025, as seen in strong monthly volumes at Los Angeles and Long Beach ports. However, following January and February's consumer sales declines, the NRF projects possible year-over-year import drops this summer.
Jonathan Gold, NRF's Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, stated, "Retailers are bringing in as much merchandise ahead of tariff increases." While tariffs on Canada and Mexico won't directly affect port volumes, the doubled tariffs on Chinese goods from 10 to 20 percent and potential 'reciprocal' tariffs in April are concerns.
The NRF raised its first-quarter forecast by 3.5 percent but lowered the second quarter's by 2.5 percent, expecting import declines to start in June and July—the first since September 2023.
For the first quarter of 2025, the NRF projects over 6.4 million TEU in imports, with January showing a 4.4 percent increase over December and 13.4 percent year-over-year. February is projected to see a 6.1 percent increase, making it the busiest in three years despite the Lunar New Year slowdown. March and April are forecasted to have 10.8 percent and 5.7 percent year-over-year increases, respectively.
However, momentum is expected to slow to a 2.8 percent increase in May, followed by monthly declines. June could see a 3.2 percent year-over-year drop, increasing to 13.9 percent in July. Container import volumes in July 2025 are projected below 2 million TEU for the first time since March 2024.
The NRF now forecasts 12.78 million TEU for the first half of 2025, a 5.7 percent increase from last year.
If the Trump administration imposes port fees on Chinese-built ships, carriers might use larger vessels and consolidate calls at major ports. Some speculate shippers might route volumes through Canadian and Mexican ports to avoid these fees.
The NRF believes growing uncertainties and ongoing "tariff turmoil" will impact import volumes throughout the year.